世界性經濟滯脹約束中國工程機械發展
http://kadhoai.com.cn 2026-05-08 02:32:10 來源:中國工業報
工程機械走過了2007年的春天,在2008年繼續保持高速增長勢頭。但是世界性的金融危機已經對工程機械的發展產生消極影響。這就是來自產業上遊的成本約束。
laizichanyeshangyoudeyueshubaokuolianggefangmian。yigeshigangtieyuancailiaodezhangjia,yigeshilingbujianjinkouchengbendezhangjia。erzhelianggeyinsu,douyujinrongweijideshijiexingtonghuopengzhangyouguan。
通tong貨huo膨peng脹zhang有you兩liang種zhong。一yi種zhong是shi需xu求qiu拉la動dong型xing通tong貨huo膨peng脹zhang。這zhe種zhong通tong貨huo膨peng脹zhang往wang往wang對dui企qi業ye有you正zheng麵mian影ying響xiang,推tui動dong經jing濟ji的de快kuai速su發fa展zhan。一yi種zhong是shi成cheng本ben推tui動dong型xing通tong貨huo膨peng脹zhang,這zhe種zhong通tong貨huo膨peng脹zhang提ti高gao企qi業ye的de成cheng本ben,但dan卻que壓ya縮suo企qi業ye的de利li潤run空kong間jian,往wang往wang對dui企qi業ye有you消xiao極ji影ying響xiang,使shi經jing濟ji形xing成cheng滯zhi脹zhang。
2008年nian以yi來lai,由you美mei元yuan拉la動dong的de全quan球qiu經jing濟ji通tong脹zhang,是shi美mei國guo削xue弱ruo國guo內nei需xu求qiu,一yi味wei刺ci激ji投tou資zi,資zi本ben貨huo幣bi擴kuo張zhang過guo快kuai而er導dao致zhi的de。而er美mei國guo次ci級ji債zhai危wei機ji,更geng是shi美mei國guo貸dai方fang缺que乏fa償chang還hai能neng力li,需xu求qiu緊jin縮suo而er導dao致zhi。美mei國guo為wei了le解jie決jue此ci次ci危wei機ji,在zai最zui近jin宣xuan布bu繼ji續xu向xiang其qi次ci級ji債zhai危wei機ji的de金jin融rong市shi場chang注zhu資zi,這zhe進jin一yi步bu加jia大da了le人ren們men對dui美mei元yuan貶bian值zhi的de預yu期qi。受shou美mei元yuan的de拖tuo累lei,世shi界jie上shang其qi他ta國guo家jia不bu得de不bu跟gen上shang美mei國guo的de貨huo幣bi擴kuo張zhang速su度du,導dao致zhi信xin用yong貨huo幣bi相xiang對dui貶bian值zhi。在zai信xin用yong受shou到dao嚴yan重zhong威wei脅xie的de世shi界jie,實shi物wu資zi產chan如ru鋼gang鐵tie等deng原yuan材cai料liao價jia格ge上shang揚yang,就jiu是shi很hen自zi然ran的de事shi情qing。
由you於yu此ci次ci膨peng脹zhang是shi滯zhi脹zhang性xing質zhi,而er中zhong國guo工gong程cheng機ji械xie在zai全quan球qiu產chan業ye鏈lian中zhong又you處chu於yu薄bo弱ruo環huan節jie,因yin此ci必bi然ran承cheng受shou上shang遊you企qi業ye轉zhuan移yi過guo來lai的de成cheng本ben壓ya力li。由you於yu零ling部bu件jian的de漲zhang價jia,中zhong國guo工gong程cheng機ji械xie行xing業ye大da約yue有you70%delirunbeijinkoulingbujianchidiao。juhunanshengjixiegongchengxiehuidezuixintongji,guimoyishanggongchengjixieqiyeshengchandezhujichanpinzhong,lingbujiandengjinkouchengbenzhanzhizaochengbende40%以上。以國內工程機械某一龍頭企業為例,在其出口產品中,購買國外零部件的成本占到出口價格的30%,2007年該龍頭企業出口創彙5億美元,而購買國外零部件就花費了20億元人民幣,外國零部件占出口產品銷售額的40%,但卻占了利潤的70%~80%。
不bu僅jin如ru此ci,雖sui然ran中zhong國guo工gong程cheng機ji械xie產chan品pin的de技ji術shu競jing爭zheng力li還hai很hen薄bo弱ruo,但dan產chan品pin出chu口kou總zong量liang卻que很hen大da,這zhe引yin起qi了le境jing外wai同tong行xing企qi業ye的de聯lian合he封feng殺sha。目mu前qian我wo國guo工gong程cheng機ji械xie行xing業ye主zhu要yao進jin口kou的de基ji礎chu零ling部bu件jian包bao括kuo液ye壓ya元yuan器qi件jian、發動機、控製元器件、傳動係統等。尤其是液壓元器件,特殊鋼材的國外供應商企業依靠市場壟斷地位,開始製定“霸王條款”。一(yi)些(xie)國(guo)際(ji)大(da)型(xing)零(ling)部(bu)件(jian)生(sheng)產(chan)商(shang)還(hai)聯(lian)合(he)起(qi)來(lai)給(gei)中(zhong)國(guo)企(qi)業(ye)設(she)計(ji)同(tong)規(gui)格(ge)尺(chi)寸(cun)的(de)零(ling)部(bu)件(jian),讓(rang)中(zhong)國(guo)的(de)出(chu)口(kou)產(chan)品(pin)在(zai)同(tong)質(zhi)上(shang)進(jin)行(xing)競(jing)爭(zheng)。跨(kua)國(guo)零(ling)部(bu)件(jian)生(sheng)產(chan)商(shang)在(zai)中(zhong)國(guo)生(sheng)產(chan)的(de)一(yi)些(xie)產(chan)品(pin)甚(shen)至(zhi)是(shi)歐(ou)洲(zhou)等(deng)發(fa)達(da)國(guo)家(jia)已(yi)經(jing)淘(tao)汰(tai)的(de)產(chan)品(pin)。但(dan)即(ji)便(bian)如(ru)此(ci),中(zhong)國(guo)企(qi)業(ye)也(ye)並(bing)非(fei)輕(qing)易(yi)就(jiu)能(neng)買(mai)得(de)到(dao)。
在鋼鐵原材料的成本方麵,2008年中國采取了一係列措施,控製鋼鐵產業的出口,以壓低國內鋼鐵材料的成本,但在全球滯脹的情況下,仍然壓不住2008年鋼材價格漲幅在10%左右的預期。隨著鐵礦石談判結果的出台,國內和國際的鋼材價格大幅上漲。日本、美國鋼材價格上調10%以上,船板等個別品種甚至上漲200美元/噸。目前在工程機械行業生產企業綜合成本中,鋼材占40%~70%不等,不同產品和不同型號有所不同。對鋼材價格不敏感的產品是單價相對較高的泵車和拖泵;而裝載機、壓路機、汽車起重機、叉車等的鋼材成本占20%左右,同時工程機械行業產能過剩,產品趨於同質化,企業提價能力有限。
有理由相信,全球滯脹的局麵還將維持1到2年(nian),這(zhe)將(jiang)部(bu)分(fen)取(qu)決(jue)於(yu)美(mei)國(guo)選(xuan)舉(ju)的(de)結(jie)果(guo)。如(ru)果(guo)美(mei)國(guo)是(shi)民(min)主(zhu)黨(dang)選(xuan)舉(ju)獲(huo)勝(sheng),其(qi)偏(pian)向(xiang)民(min)生(sheng)的(de)政(zheng)策(ce),將(jiang)有(you)助(zhu)於(yu)擴(kuo)張(zhang)美(mei)國(guo)內(nei)需(xu),恢(hui)複(fu)美(mei)元(yuan)堅(jian)挺(ting)地(di)位(wei),從(cong)而(er)緩(huan)解(jie)滯(zhi)脹(zhang)。而(er)如(ru)果(guo)是(shi)共(gong)和(he)黨(dang)獲(huo)勝(sheng),則(ze)可(ke)能(neng)堅(jian)持(chi)其(qi)既(ji)有(you)經(jing)濟(ji)政(zheng)策(ce),使(shi)得(de)滯(zhi)脹(zhang)進(jin)一(yi)步(bu)嚴(yan)重(zhong)。
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