zaijinrongweijibeijingxia，zhongguozhizaoyeyuquanqiuzhizaoyeyiyangzaoshoulebutongchengdudedaji。jinrongweijiyinyinghaiweiwanquansanquzhiji，youmianlinjienengjianpaidejudayali。jinricaizhengbudengbumenyouchutailequxiao406種商品出口退稅的政策。對於正處於工業化中期的中國製造業來講，將如何應對以上諸多不確定因素的影響？
亞ya洲zhou製zhi造zao業ye協xie會hui首shou席xi執zhi行xing官guan兼jian羅luo軍jun在zai接jie受shou記ji者zhe采cai訪fang時shi認ren為wei，勞lao動dong力li成cheng本ben上shang升sheng隻zhi是shi中zhong國guo製zhi造zao業ye加jia快kuai轉zhuan型xing的de一yi方fang麵mian，可ke能neng也ye是shi主zhu要yao因yin素su。中zhong國guo工gong業ye化hua起qi步bu較jiao晚wan，較jiao長chang時shi期qi處chu於yu產chan業ye鏈lian的de中zhong低di端duan，限xian製zhi了le中zhong國guo製zhi造zao業ye的de拓tuo展zhan空kong間jian，導dao致zhi部bu分fen製zhi造zao業ye迫po於yu成cheng本ben壓ya力li而er倒dao閉bi。
在zai羅luo軍jun看kan來lai，人ren民min幣bi升sheng值zhi和he成cheng本ben上shang升sheng是shi一yi個ge必bi然ran趨qu勢shi，標biao誌zhi著zhe中zhong國guo製zhi造zao業ye在zai工gong業ye化hua工gong程cheng中zhong還hai將jiang遇yu到dao更geng多duo更geng大da的de阻zu力li，而er這zhe些xie阻zu礙ai因yin素su並bing不bu是shi別bie人ren強qiang加jia的de，主zhu要yao是shi產chan業ye發fa展zhan的de必bi然ran規gui律lv所suo致zhi。目mu前qian，中zhong國guo製zhi造zao業ye的de勞lao動dong力li工gong資zi一yi般ban在zai1500元左右，基本上每年都會增加300—500，而周邊的越南、印尼等工業化起步國家的勞動力成本會比中國便宜一半左右。
此ci外wai，人ren民min幣bi升sheng值zhi嚴yan格ge意yi義yi上shang說shuo，是shi一yi個ge國guo家jia經jing濟ji實shi力li的de象xiang征zheng，標biao誌zhi著zhe一yi個ge國guo家jia競jing爭zheng力li的de增zeng強qiang。但dan是shi，不bu排pai除chu其qi他ta政zheng治zhi因yin素su和he非fei正zheng常chang因yin素su的de幹gan擾rao。人ren民min幣bi升sheng值zhi，將jiang對dui長chang期qi依yi靠kao低di廉lian勞lao動dong力li成cheng本ben優you勢shi的de部bu分fen中zhong國guo製zhi造zao業ye來lai說shuo，是shi一yi個ge嚴yan重zhong的de打da擊ji。成cheng本ben增zeng加jia將jiang導dao致zhi產chan品pin競jing爭zheng力li降jiang低di。無wu論lun勞lao動dong力li成cheng本ben上shang升sheng還hai是shi人ren民min幣bi升sheng值zhi，無wu疑yi都dou將jiang進jin一yi步bu壓ya縮suo中zhong國guo製zhi造zao業ye的de國guo際ji空kong間jian，但dan是shi倒dao閉bi機ji製zhi的de作zuo用yong不bu可ke忽hu視shi。中zhong國guo製zhi造zao業ye必bi須xu從cong低di端duan製zhi造zao業ye向xiang高gao端duan製zhi造zao業ye和he綠lv色se製zhi造zao轉zhuan型xing，依yi靠kao科ke技ji競jing爭zheng力li提ti升sheng產chan品pin競jing爭zheng力li是shi不bu二er選xuan擇ze。
羅軍指出，“世界工廠”助zhu推tui了le中zhong國guo經jing濟ji在zai國guo際ji上shang的de地di位wei，但dan到dao今jin天tian為wei止zhi，也ye為wei中zhong國guo經jing濟ji的de進jin一yi步bu騰teng飛fei設she置zhi了le許xu多duo條tiao件jian，帶dai來lai了le不bu少shao的de發fa展zhan壓ya力li。主zhu要yao表biao現xian在zai，粗cu糙cao的de發fa展zhan模mo式shi，帶dai來lai了le嚴yan重zhong的de環huan境jing壓ya力li和he節jie能neng減jian排pai壓ya力li。中zhong國guo製zhi造zao業ye如ru何he盡jin快kuai跨kua越yue工gong業ye化hua中zhong後hou期qi這zhe個ge階jie段duan，如ru何he構gou建jian綠lv色se工gong業ye體ti係xi，如ru何he推tui動dong高gao端duan製zhi造zao業ye崛jue起qi，是shi當dang前qian最zui為wei迫po切qie的de任ren務wu。
據羅軍分析，從近期政策看，國家取消406種商品出口退稅，政策背後傳遞的主要是三個信號：一(yi)是(shi)產(chan)業(ye)結(jie)構(gou)調(tiao)整(zheng)的(de)需(xu)要(yao)，產(chan)業(ye)結(jie)構(gou)調(tiao)整(zheng)的(de)最(zui)終(zhong)目(mu)的(de)是(shi)實(shi)現(xian)工(gong)業(ye)的(de)綠(lv)色(se)增(zeng)長(chang)，限(xian)製(zhi)高(gao)耗(hao)能(neng)產(chan)品(pin)的(de)出(chu)口(kou)，加(jia)快(kuai)淘(tao)汰(tai)落(luo)後(hou)產(chan)能(neng)，實(shi)現(xian)節(jie)能(neng)減(jian)排(pai)。此(ci)次(ci)退(tui)稅(shui)的(de)商(shang)品(pin)名(ming)單(dan)上(shang)，初(chu)級(ji)產(chan)品(pin)占(zhan)比(bi)較(jiao)高(gao)，表(biao)明(ming)國(guo)家(jia)想(xiang)要(yao)淘(tao)汰(tai)低(di)附(fu)加(jia)值(zhi)產(chan)品(pin)和(he)落(luo)後(hou)產(chan)能(neng)的(de)決(jue)心(xin)。二(er)是(shi)外(wai)貿(mao)結(jie)構(gou)調(tiao)整(zheng)的(de)需(xu)要(yao)，多(duo)年(nian)來(lai)，中(zhong)國(guo)出(chu)口(kou)份(fen)額(e)高(gao)，比(bi)例(li)大(da)，順(shun)差(cha)也(ye)大(da)，給(gei)別(bie)國(guo)商(shang)品(pin)帶(dai)來(lai)不(bu)小(xiao)的(de)競(jing)爭(zheng)壓(ya)力(li)，在(zai)國(guo)際(ji)上(shang)也(ye)處(chu)於(yu)不(bu)利(li)地(di)位(wei)。而(er)中(zhong)國(guo)商(shang)品(pin)的(de)附(fu)加(jia)值(zhi)卻(que)非(fei)常(chang)低(di)，消(xiao)耗(hao)了(le)大(da)量(liang)的(de)原(yuan)材(cai)料(liao)，這(zhe)樣(yang)的(de)貿(mao)易(yi)順(shun)差(cha)到(dao)一(yi)定(ding)時(shi)候(hou)對(dui)經(jing)濟(ji)的(de)副(fu)作(zuo)用(yong)將(jiang)逐(zhu)漸(jian)顯(xian)現(xian)。隨(sui)著(zhe)中(zhong)國(guo)工(gong)業(ye)化(hua)進(jin)程(cheng)的(de)加(jia)快(kuai)，中(zhong)國(guo)工(gong)業(ye)向(xiang)高(gao)端(duan)製(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)轉(zhuan)型(xing)的(de)步(bu)伐(fa)將(jiang)加(jia)快(kuai)。三(san)是(shi)抑(yi)製(zhi)通(tong)貨(huo)膨(peng)脹(zhang)的(de)需(xu)要(yao)。
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