在zai金jin融rong危wei機ji背bei景jing下xia，中zhong國guo製zhi造zao業ye與yu全quan球qiu製zhi造zao業ye一yi樣yang遭zao受shou了le不bu同tong程cheng度du的de打da擊ji。金jin融rong危wei機ji陰yin影ying還hai未wei完wan全quan散san去qu之zhi際ji，又you麵mian臨lin節jie能neng減jian排pai的de巨ju大da壓ya力li。近jin日ri財cai政zheng部bu等deng部bu門men又you出chu台tai了le取qu消xiao406種商品出口退稅的政策。對於正處於工業化中期的中國製造業來講，將如何應對以上諸多不確定因素的影響？
亞(ya)洲(zhou)製(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)協(xie)會(hui)首(shou)席(xi)執(zhi)行(xing)官(guan)兼(jian)羅(luo)軍(jun)在(zai)接(jie)受(shou)記(ji)者(zhe)采(cai)訪(fang)時(shi)認(ren)為(wei)，勞(lao)動(dong)力(li)成(cheng)本(ben)上(shang)升(sheng)隻(zhi)是(shi)中(zhong)國(guo)製(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)加(jia)快(kuai)轉(zhuan)型(xing)的(de)一(yi)方(fang)麵(mian)，可(ke)能(neng)也(ye)是(shi)主(zhu)要(yao)因(yin)素(su)。中(zhong)國(guo)工(gong)業(ye)化(hua)起(qi)步(bu)較(jiao)晚(wan)，較(jiao)長(chang)時(shi)期(qi)處(chu)於(yu)產(chan)業(ye)鏈(lian)的(de)中(zhong)低(di)端(duan)，限(xian)製(zhi)了(le)中(zhong)國(guo)製(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)的(de)拓(tuo)展(zhan)空(kong)間(jian)，導(dao)致(zhi)部(bu)分(fen)製(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)迫(po)於(yu)成(cheng)本(ben)壓(ya)力(li)而(er)倒(dao)閉(bi)。
在zai羅luo軍jun看kan來lai，人ren民min幣bi升sheng值zhi和he成cheng本ben上shang升sheng是shi一yi個ge必bi然ran趨qu勢shi，標biao誌zhi著zhe中zhong國guo製zhi造zao業ye在zai工gong業ye化hua工gong程cheng中zhong還hai將jiang遇yu到dao更geng多duo更geng大da的de阻zu力li，而er這zhe些xie阻zu礙ai因yin素su並bing不bu是shi別bie人ren強qiang加jia的de，主zhu要yao是shi產chan業ye發fa展zhan的de必bi然ran規gui律lv所suo致zhi。目mu前qian，中zhong國guo製zhi造zao業ye的de勞lao動dong力li工gong資zi一yi般ban在zai1500元左右，基本上每年都會增加300—500，而周邊的越南、印尼等工業化起步國家的勞動力成本會比中國便宜一半左右。
此ci外wai，人ren民min幣bi升sheng值zhi嚴yan格ge意yi義yi上shang說shuo，是shi一yi個ge國guo家jia經jing濟ji實shi力li的de象xiang征zheng，標biao誌zhi著zhe一yi個ge國guo家jia競jing爭zheng力li的de增zeng強qiang。但dan是shi，不bu排pai除chu其qi他ta政zheng治zhi因yin素su和he非fei正zheng常chang因yin素su的de幹gan擾rao。人ren民min幣bi升sheng值zhi，將jiang對dui長chang期qi依yi靠kao低di廉lian勞lao動dong力li成cheng本ben優you勢shi的de部bu分fen中zhong國guo製zhi造zao業ye來lai說shuo，是shi一yi個ge嚴yan重zhong的de打da擊ji。成cheng本ben增zeng加jia將jiang導dao致zhi產chan品pin競jing爭zheng力li降jiang低di。無wu論lun勞lao動dong力li成cheng本ben上shang升sheng還hai是shi人ren民min幣bi升sheng值zhi，無wu疑yi都dou將jiang進jin一yi步bu壓ya縮suo中zhong國guo製zhi造zao業ye的de國guo際ji空kong間jian，但dan是shi倒dao閉bi機ji製zhi的de作zuo用yong不bu可ke忽hu視shi。中zhong國guo製zhi造zao業ye必bi須xu從cong低di端duan製zhi造zao業ye向xiang高gao端duan製zhi造zao業ye和he綠lv色se製zhi造zao轉zhuan型xing，依yi靠kao科ke技ji競jing爭zheng力li提ti升sheng產chan品pin競jing爭zheng力li是shi不bu二er選xuan擇ze。
羅軍指出，“世界工廠”zhutuilezhongguojingjizaiguojishangdediwei，dandaojintianweizhi，yeweizhongguojingjidejinyibutengfeishezhilexuduotiaojian，dailailebushaodefazhanyali。zhuyaobiaoxianzai，cucaodefazhanmoshi，dailaileyanzhongdehuanjingyalihejienengjianpaiyali。zhongguozhizaoyeruhejinkuaikuayuegongyehuazhonghouqizhegejieduan，ruhegoujianlvsegongyetixi，ruhetuidonggaoduanzhizaoyejueqi，shidangqianzuiweipoqiederenwu。
據羅軍分析，從近期政策看，國家取消406種商品出口退稅，政策背後傳遞的主要是三個信號：yishichanyejiegoutiaozhengdexuyao，chanyejiegoutiaozhengdezuizhongmudeshishixiangongyedelvsezengchang，xianzhigaohaonengchanpindechukou，jiakuaitaotailuohouchanneng，shixianjienengjianpai。cicituishuideshangpinmingdanshang，chujichanpinzhanbijiaogao，biaomingguojiaxiangyaotaotaidifujiazhichanpinheluohouchannengdejuexin。ershiwaimaojiegoutiaozhengdexuyao，duonianlai，zhongguochukoufenegao，bilida，shunchayeda，geibieguoshangpindailaibuxiaodejingzhengyali，zaiguojishangyechuyubulidiwei。erzhongguoshangpindefujiazhiquefeichangdi，xiaohaoledaliangdeyuancailiao，zheyangdemaoyishunchadaoyidingshihouduijingjidefuzuoyongjiangzhujianxianxian。suizhezhongguogongyehuajinchengdejiakuai，zhongguogongyexianggaoduanzhizaoyezhuanxingdebufajiangjiakuai。sanshiyizhitonghuopengzhangdexuyao。
羅(luo)軍(jun)表(biao)示(shi)，今(jin)後(hou)中(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)調(tiao)整(zheng)的(de)步(bu)伐(fa)將(jiang)會(hui)進(jin)一(yi)步(bu)加(jia)快(kuai)，而(er)不(bu)是(shi)放(fang)緩(huan)。對(dui)於(yu)經(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)長(chang)的(de)步(bu)伐(fa)可(ke)能(neng)會(hui)適(shi)當(dang)降(jiang)低(di)，而(er)更(geng)加(jia)注(zhu)重(zhong)經(jing)濟(ji)質(zhi)量(liang)的(de)提(ti)高(gao)，也(ye)就(jiu)是(shi)說(shuo)會(hui)加(jia)大(da)對(dui)高(gao)端(duan)服(fu)務(wu)業(ye)和(he)高(gao)端(duan)製(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)的(de)培(pei)育(yu)力(li)度(du)。經(jing)濟(ji)的(de)宏(hong)觀(guan)麵(mian)不(bu)會(hui)發(fa)生(sheng)大(da)的(de)變(bian)化(hua)，中(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)強(qiang)勁(jin)增(zeng)長(chang)的(de)趨(qu)勢(shi)不(bu)會(hui)發(fa)生(sheng)大(da)的(de)改(gai)變(bian)，這(zhe)主(zhu)要(yao)是(shi)因(yin)為(wei)中(zhong)國(guo)市(shi)場(chang)沒(mei)有(you)發(fa)生(sheng)變(bian)化(hua)，需(xu)求(qiu)仍(reng)然(ran)強(qiang)勁(jin)。某(mou)些(xie)行(xing)業(ye)如(ru)房(fang)地(di)產(chan)業(ye)將(jiang)進(jin)入(ru)新(xin)一(yi)輪(lun)調(tiao)整(zheng)周(zhou)期(qi)，高(gao)能(neng)耗(hao)高(gao)汙(wu)染(ran)行(xing)業(ye)將(jiang)基(ji)本(ben)得(de)到(dao)根(gen)治(zhi)。預(yu)計(ji)通(tong)過(guo)三(san)至(zhi)五(wu)年(nian)時(shi)間(jian)的(de)調(tiao)整(zheng)以(yi)後(hou)，中(zhong)國(guo)的(de)產(chan)業(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)將(jiang)會(hui)提(ti)升(sheng)到(dao)一(yi)個(ge)新(xin)的(de)水(shui)平(ping)，綠(lv)色(se)的(de)，低(di)碳(tan)的(de)，可(ke)持(chi)續(xu)的(de)發(fa)展(zhan)模(mo)式(shi)將(jiang)基(ji)本(ben)建(jian)立(li)。
