去(qu)年(nian)底(di)召(zhao)開(kai)的(de)中(zhong)央(yang)經(jing)濟(ji)工(gong)作(zuo)會(hui)議(yi)提(ti)出(chu)穩(wen)中(zhong)求(qiu)進(jin)的(de)工(gong)作(zuo)總(zong)基(ji)調(tiao)，強(qiang)調(tiao)要(yao)在(zai)保(bao)持(chi)經(jing)濟(ji)平(ping)穩(wen)較(jiao)快(kuai)發(fa)展(zhan)的(de)同(tong)時(shi)
，在(zai)轉(zhuan)變(bian)經(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展(zhan)方(fang)式(shi)上(shang)取(qu)得(de)新(xin)進(jin)展(zhan)
，在(zai)深(shen)化(hua)改(gai)革(ge)開(kai)放(fang)上(shang)取(qu)得(de)新(xin)突(tu)破(po)。學(xue)習(xi)貫(guan)徹(che)這(zhe)一(yi)精(jing)神(shen)，需要全麵認識我國經濟增長趨勢的發展變化
，把解決當前突出問題與謀劃長遠發展更好地結合起來，加快推進經濟轉型和改革創新，為我國更長時期、更高水平、更好質量發展創造條件。

　　全麵認識我國經濟增長趨勢的發展變化

　　去年
，我國經濟增長逐季放緩

，季度同比增速分別為9.7%、9.5%、9.1%和8.9%。有人擔心，我國會不會重現2008年末和2009nianshangbannianjingjidafuxiahuataishi
，bingyinfajingjizengsuqushixinghuiluo。yinggaikandao，suiranquanqiujingjijiansuhewaibuxuqiushousuoduiwoguojingjiyoujiaodayingxiang，danjingjizengsufanghuanzaihendachengdushangshiwomenzhudongtiaokongdejieguo。hongguanjingjizhengcecongyingduiweijidekuozhangxingzhengcezhubuhuiguichangtai，guozhaifaxingguimohechizilvzhubusuoxiao

，huobizhengcezhuanxiangwenjian
，zhexiejucuozainiuzhuanwujiaguokuaishangzhangtaishidetongshi，bukebimiandihuishijingjizengsuquyuhuiluo，danzheshixiangqianzaijingjizengchangheliqujiandehuigui，youliyujianhuanwujiashangzhangyali，youliyuweijiegoutiaozhenghejingjizhuanxingchuangzaotiaojian。

　　2012年(nian)我(wo)國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)長(chang)麵(mian)臨(lin)下(xia)行(xing)壓(ya)力(li)，但(dan)仍(reng)將(jiang)保(bao)持(chi)較(jiao)快(kuai)速(su)度(du)。雖(sui)然(ran)世(shi)界(jie)經(jing)濟(ji)形(xing)勢(shi)嚴(yan)峻(jun)複(fu)雜(za)和(he)外(wai)需(xu)收(shou)縮(suo)對(dui)我(wo)國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)的(de)影(ying)響(xiang)有(you)較(jiao)大(da)不(bu)確(que)定(ding)性(xing)，但(dan)內(nei)需(xu)仍(reng)將(jiang)保(bao)持(chi)較(jiao)快(kuai)增(zeng)長(chang)態(tai)勢(shi)。首(shou)先(xian)，支(zhi)持(chi)消(xiao)費(fei)需(xu)求(qiu)增(zeng)長(chang)的(de)有(you)利(li)條(tiao)件(jian)較(jiao)多(duo)。去(qu)年(nian)新(xin)增(zeng)就(jiu)業(ye)超(chao)過(guo)1200萬wan人ren
，城cheng鄉xiang居ju民min收shou入ru增zeng長chang較jiao快kuai，社she會hui保bao障zhang投tou入ru大da幅fu增zeng加jia，這zhe些xie情qing況kuang有you利li於yu提ti高gao城cheng鄉xiang居ju民min消xiao費fei能neng力li，因yin而er今jin年nian消xiao費fei需xu求qiu仍reng將jiang保bao持chi穩wen定ding增zeng長chang態tai勢shi。其qi次ci，投tou資zi需xu求qiu將jiang保bao持chi較jiao快kuai增zeng長chang。保bao障zhang在zai建jian和he續xu建jian的de水shui利li、鐵路、重大裝備工程的資金需求，新開工一批“十二五”規劃確定的建設項目，加之民間投資增長較快
，地方政府投資積極性較高，今後一個時期投資仍將穩定增長。從各方麵預測看
，2012年我國經濟增速將為8.5%左右，這仍是比較高的增速。

　　還應看到，我國保持較長時期的經濟較快增長有許多有利條件。一是國內市場加快成長。隨著居民收入增長加快、zhongdengshouruquntixunsukuodahexiaofeijiegoushengji，guoneixiaofeishichangdezongtiguimojiangjiasukuoda，judadexiaofeiqianlikeyizhuanhuaweijingjichixuzengchangdeqiangjindongli。ershirenlizibenhekejichuangxinnenglitishengkongjianjiaoda。zhengfudafuduzengjiajiaoyutouru，jiazhijiatingguimosuoxiaoheshouruzengchang，renjunrenlizibentourujiangdafutigao。yuelaiyueduodeqiyechengweichuangxinzhuti，chanyejishujinbujiakuai，kejichuangxinnenglitisheng，jiangduibaochijingjipingwenjiaokuaizengchangchanshengjudacujinzuoyong。sanshichengzhenhuajiasufazhanweijingjizengchangzhuruxindedongli。anzhao“十二五”規劃綱要提出的城鎮化率年均提高0.8個百分點測算，每年新增城市人口將超過1000萬人，加上已經進入城市的1.6億yi農nong村cun轉zhuan移yi人ren口kou逐zhu步bu轉zhuan化hua為wei城cheng鎮zhen居ju民min，將jiang創chuang造zao巨ju大da的de投tou資zi和he消xiao費fei需xu求qiu。四si是shi我wo國guo生sheng產chan力li發fa展zhan水shui平ping具ju有you多duo層ceng次ci特te征zheng，經jing濟ji增zeng長chang的de回hui旋xuan空kong間jian較jiao大da，低di成cheng本ben優you勢shi可ke以yi通tong過guo產chan業ye轉zhuan移yi繼ji續xu延yan續xu，而er要yao素su結jie構gou的de多duo層ceng次ci性xing又you可ke以yi為wei形xing成cheng動dong態tai比bi較jiao優you勢shi創chuang造zao條tiao件jian。

　　同tong時shi也ye應ying看kan到dao，經jing濟ji增zeng速su放fang緩huan對dui經jing濟ji轉zhuan型xing提ti出chu緊jin迫po要yao求qiu。我wo國guo經jing濟ji有you條tiao件jian保bao持chi長chang時shi期qi的de較jiao快kuai增zeng長chang，但dan隨sui著zhe經jing濟ji總zong量liang迅xun速su擴kuo大da，加jia之zhi受shou需xu求qiu和he供gong給gei因yin素su的de影ying響xiang，難nan以yi再zai保bao持chi過guo去qu一yi個ge時shi期qi兩liang位wei數shu的de高gao速su增zeng長chang

，經jing濟ji增zeng速su將jiang有you所suo放fang緩huan，這zhe是shi符fu合he發fa展zhan規gui律lv的de。從cong需xu求qiu方fang麵mian看kan，隨sui著zhe發fa展zhan水shui平ping提ti高gao


，投tou資zi需xu求qiu將jiang趨qu於yu減jian弱ruo；隨著居民收入增長和社會保障水平提高，消費需求將趨於增強；隨著外貿順差逐步收縮，外需的貢獻將減小。從供給方麵看，人口年齡結構變化引起儲蓄率、勞動力供需條件等宏觀經濟變量調整，將導致資本、laodonglidengshengchanyaosugonggeitiaojianfashengjiaodabianhua，chuxulvquyuxiajiang，laodonglidichengbenyoushijianruo，jiazhinengyuanhetudigonggeideyueshujiaju，qianzaijingjizengchanglvjiangquyuxiajiang。jingjizengsufanghuanduijiakuaijingjizhuanxingtichulegengjiajinpodeyaoqiu，woguojingjizengchangbixubaituoduiziyuanheyaosugaoqiangdutourudeyilai，gengduodiyikaokejijinbuhequanyaosushengchanlvdetigao。zhejiuyaoqiujiangjingjizengsufanghuandeguochengzhuanhuaweijingjizhuanxingdeguocheng。

　　為更長時期、更高水平
、更好質量發展創造條件

　　當dang前qian我wo國guo經jing濟ji發fa展zhan中zhong的de矛mao盾dun和he問wen題ti，有you外wai部bu環huan境jing和he內nei在zai條tiao件jian發fa生sheng變bian化hua的de原yuan因yin，但dan深shen層ceng原yuan因yin主zhu要yao是shi傳chuan統tong發fa展zhan方fang式shi積ji累lei的de結jie構gou性xing矛mao盾dun不bu斷duan加jia劇ju。這zhe不bu僅jin表biao現xian在zai需xu求qiu結jie構gou上shang，內nei需xu與yu外wai需xu不bu平ping衡heng，投tou資zi與yu消xiao費fei不bu協xie調tiao，資zi源yuan和he要yao素su過guo度du向xiang投tou資zi傾qing斜xie，消xiao費fei對dui經jing濟ji增zeng長chang的de貢gong獻xian率lv偏pian低di；而(er)且(qie)表(biao)現(xian)在(zai)供(gong)給(gei)結(jie)構(gou)上(shang)，低(di)附(fu)加(jia)值(zhi)產(chan)業(ye)比(bi)重(zhong)過(guo)大(da)


，過(guo)度(du)依(yi)靠(kao)低(di)成(cheng)本(ben)優(you)勢(shi)，自(zi)主(zhu)創(chuang)新(xin)能(neng)力(li)不(bu)強(qiang)

，科(ke)技(ji)進(jin)步(bu)和(he)創(chuang)新(xin)對(dui)經(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)長(chang)的(de)貢(gong)獻(xian)率(lv)偏(pian)低(di)。經(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)速(su)放(fang)緩(huan)，使(shi)潛(qian)在(zai)矛(mao)盾(dun)和(he)問(wen)題(ti)“水落石出”，產chan能neng過guo剩sheng矛mao盾dun凸tu顯xian，企qi業ye生sheng產chan經jing營ying困kun難nan增zeng多duo，經jing濟ji效xiao益yi下xia降jiang，金jin融rong領ling域yu潛qian在zai風feng險xian開kai始shi顯xian現xian。解jie決jue這zhe些xie矛mao盾dun和he問wen題ti
，需xu要yao在zai保bao持chi經jing濟ji平ping穩wen較jiao快kuai增zeng長chang的de前qian提ti下xia
，充chong分fen利li用yong經jing濟ji增zeng速su放fang緩huan形xing成cheng的de倒dao逼bi機ji製zhi，加jia快kuai經jing濟ji轉zhuan型xing和he體ti製zhi創chuang新xin，為wei更geng長chang時shi期qi、更高水平
、更好質量的發展創造條件。這正是“十二五”規劃綱要確定的“主題”和“主線”的要求。

　　yikuodaneixuweizhanlvejidian。kuodaneixudezhongdianshikuodaxiaofeixuqiu

，kuodaguoneishichangzongtiguimo，gaibianjingjizengchangduitouzihewaixudeguoduyilai。jingjineiwaishiheng
，genyuanzaitouzihexiaofeishiheng。changqiyilai，woguojingjixingchengleziyuanheyaosuguoduxiangtouziqingxiedetizhihejizhi
，tudidijiage、勞動力低成本
、貸款低利率
、招zhao商shang引yin資zi低di稅shui率lv，使shi得de投tou資zi率lv不bu斷duan提ti高gao，投tou資zi對dui經jing濟ji增zeng長chang的de貢gong獻xian率lv多duo年nian來lai居ju高gao不bu下xia。投tou資zi形xing成cheng的de生sheng產chan能neng力li在zai國guo內nei市shi場chang難nan以yi消xiao化hua，就jiu要yao到dao國guo際ji市shi場chang釋shi放fang。今jin後hou一yi個ge時shi期qi，世shi界jie經jing濟ji總zong體ti上shang將jiang處chu於yu相xiang對dui低di迷mi、huanmanzengchangdejieduan，tongguoguojishichangshifangshengchannenglidekongjiansuoxiao。zhejiuyaoqiubakuodaxiaofeixuqiuzuoweikuodaneixudezhanlvezhongdian，zengqiangzuizhongxiaofeiduijingjizengchangdeladongzuoyong。chongfenkaifaheliyongwoguojudadexiaofeishichangqianli，jiuyaojijiwentuodituijinchengzhenhua，shifangnongyezhuanyirenkoudexiaofeiqianli；加快推進收入分配製度改革
，提高城鄉居民特別是中低收入居民收入水平

，提高中等收入者比重；鼓勵以“住
、行”為主導的居民消費結構升級
，培育文化、旅遊、健身、養老、家政等新興消費領域和網絡購物等新型消費業態。

　　以(yi)創(chuang)新(xin)驅(qu)動(dong)產(chan)業(ye)轉(zhuan)型(xing)升(sheng)級(ji)。國(guo)際(ji)市(shi)場(chang)需(xu)求(qiu)收(shou)縮(suo)，我(wo)國(guo)勞(lao)動(dong)力(li)等(deng)生(sheng)產(chan)要(yao)素(su)成(cheng)本(ben)提(ti)高(gao)，從(cong)需(xu)求(qiu)和(he)供(gong)給(gei)兩(liang)方(fang)麵(mian)對(dui)產(chan)業(ye)轉(zhuan)型(xing)升(sheng)級(ji)形(xing)成(cheng)巨(ju)大(da)壓(ya)力(li)。加(jia)快(kuai)推(tui)進(jin)新(xin)一(yi)輪(lun)產(chan)業(ye)轉(zhuan)型(xing)升(sheng)級(ji)，需(xu)要(yao)通(tong)過(guo)創(chuang)新(xin)企(qi)業(ye)盈(ying)利(li)模(mo)式(shi)來(lai)啟(qi)動(dong)需(xu)求(qiu)，拓(tuo)展(zhan)市(shi)場(chang)空(kong)間(jian)；通過“創造性破壞”jianlixindejishuheshengchantixi
，yishengchanxiaolvdetigaodixiaoheduichongchengbenshangshengyali。yingliyongdangqianyoulishiji
，peiyuhejianquanchuangxinqudongjizhi，guliqiyejiadayanfatouruherencaichubei
，tishengchuangxinnengli，zhongdiantupozhiyuechanyejiazhiliantishengdeguanjianhuanjie，jiakuaifazhanyanfa
、設計、標準、物流
、營銷、品牌和供應鏈管理等生產性服務環節，促進製造服務化和服務知識化；適應國際產業競爭格局的新變化，加快培育戰略性新興產業，構建“核心技術—戰略產品—工程與規模應用”的創新價值鏈；鼓勵和支持企業開展跨國並購

，建立全球生產運營體係。

　　大力推進低碳綠色發展。我國經濟發展麵臨的能源資源和環境硬約束日趨突出
，依靠資源和要素大規模、高gao強qiang度du投tou入ru支zhi撐cheng經jing濟ji快kuai速su增zeng長chang的de局ju麵mian已yi經jing難nan以yi為wei繼ji，必bi須xu把ba資zi源yuan環huan境jing壓ya力li轉zhuan化hua為wei技ji術shu進jin步bu和he產chan業ye升sheng級ji的de動dong力li。這zhe就jiu要yao求qiu逐zhu步bu提ti高gao非fei化hua石shi能neng源yuan在zai一yi次ci能neng源yuan生sheng產chan和he消xiao費fei中zhong的de比bi重zhong
，大da力li發fa展zhan清qing潔jie能neng源yuan和he可ke再zai生sheng能neng源yuan；加快建設以低碳為特征的工業
、建築和交通體係，加強節能與提高能效、潔淨煤、先進核能等低碳技術的研發和產業化投入

；加快工業節能技術改造，推行強製性能效標識，擴大節能產品認證範圍，推行合同能源管理，發展節能服務產業；對城市現有建築實行節能改造
，新建築實行節能標準，加快發展軌道交通等低碳交通方式。

　　加快改革創新，推動經濟轉型取得新進展

　　yiduanshijianyilai，woguojijituidongjingjizhuanxing，danzongtishangchengxiaohaibumingxian，qiyuanyinshiduofangmiande。yifangmianshixianjieduanchuantongfazhanfangshirengyoufazhankongjian
，dangengzhongyaodefangmianshixianyouliyigejuhetizhijizhibuzuyituidongjingjibaituoyuanyoulujingzhuanxiangxindefazhanguidao。yiner，jiandingbuyidituijingaigeshijiakuaijingjizhuanxingdegenbentujing，yeshijiejueshencengcimaodunhewentideguanjian。dangqian，woguoshenhuagaigedekongjianyiranhenda。biru，jiakuaiziyuanxingchanpinjiagegaige
，keyicushiqiyejienengjianghao，kaifajieyueziyuandexinjishuhexinchanpin
；提高國有企業利潤上繳比例
，並將其更多地用於社會保障支出，可以提高居民的消費傾向和意願
；放寬金融、電dian信xin等deng行xing業ye的de市shi場chang準zhun入ru，讓rang更geng多duo的de社she會hui資zi本ben和he民min營ying企qi業ye進jin入ru，可ke以yi降jiang低di社she會hui經jing濟ji成cheng本ben，提ti高gao資zi源yuan配pei置zhi效xiao率lv。可ke見jian，加jia快kuai經jing濟ji體ti製zhi改gai革ge，就jiu可ke以yi增zeng強qiang經jing濟ji發fa展zhan的de活huo力li和he動dong力li，推tui動dong經jing濟ji轉zhuan型xing取qu得de新xin進jin展zhan。

　　當(dang)前(qian)的(de)形(xing)勢(shi)變(bian)化(hua)
，為(wei)深(shen)化(hua)改(gai)革(ge)提(ti)供(gong)了(le)時(shi)間(jian)窗(chuang)口(kou)。應(ying)緊(jin)緊(jin)抓(zhua)住(zhu)有(you)利(li)時(shi)機(ji)
，下(xia)決(jue)心(xin)推(tui)進(jin)重(zhong)要(yao)領(ling)域(yu)和(he)關(guan)鍵(jian)環(huan)節(jie)改(gai)革(ge)，特(te)別(bie)是(shi)積(ji)極(ji)穩(wen)妥(tuo)地(di)推(tui)進(jin)金(jin)融(rong)改(gai)革(ge)、財稅改革和資源性產品價格改革；提高國有企業競爭力
；為wei非fei公gong有you製zhi經jing濟ji發fa展zhan創chuang造zao更geng好hao的de外wai部bu環huan境jing。加jia快kuai政zheng府fu職zhi能neng轉zhuan變bian是shi推tui進jin改gai革ge的de重zhong要yao方fang麵mian和he前qian提ti。在zai應ying對dui國guo際ji金jin融rong危wei機ji衝chong擊ji時shi期qi更geng多duo地di發fa揮hui政zheng府fu推tui動dong經jing濟ji發fa展zhan的de作zuo用yong，避bi免mian了le經jing濟ji出chu現xian大da的de起qi落luo
，實shi踐jian證zheng明ming是shi完wan全quan正zheng確que的de。但dan是shi，不bu能neng將jiang應ying對dui危wei機ji衝chong擊ji時shi期qi政zheng府fu發fa揮hui的de特te殊shu經jing濟ji作zuo用yong作zuo為wei一yi種zhong常chang態tai，更geng不bu能neng因yin此ci忽hu視shi發fa揮hui市shi場chang機ji製zhi的de作zuo用yong。應ying該gai看kan到dao，目mu前qian存cun在zai的de一yi些xie深shen層ceng次ci矛mao盾dun和he問wen題ti，以yi及ji經jing濟ji金jin融rong領ling域yu的de一yi些xie潛qian在zai風feng險xian，根gen源yuan還hai是shi市shi場chang機ji製zhi不bu健jian全quan不bu完wan善shan。在zai繼ji續xu加jia強qiang和he改gai善shan宏hong觀guan調tiao控kong的de同tong時shi，應ying高gao度du重zhong視shi完wan善shan市shi場chang機ji製zhi，減jian少shao對dui市shi場chang主zhu體ti的de直zhi接jie幹gan預yu，消xiao除chu資zi源yuan和he要yao素su價jia格ge扭niu曲qu，促cu進jin形xing成cheng公gong平ping競jing爭zheng的de市shi場chang環huan境jing，使shi微wei觀guan經jing濟ji主zhu體ti的de創chuang新xin潛qian能neng得de到dao充chong分fen釋shi放fang，使shi各ge行xing各ge業ye蓬peng勃bo發fa展zhan。

　　（作者為國家發改委宏觀經濟研究院副院長）