zhejitianguanyuzhongguozhizaoyechengbendepinglunchongchizhegezhongmeiti，shoujijihubeishuapingle，youqishifuyaobolidongshichangjiangshudaomeiguotouzishechangdeyuanyin，renweizhongguochulaodonglizhiwai，duoshushengchanyaosudoubimeiguogui
，wangluoshangshenzhihanchu“曹德旺也跑了”的言論，這些無不讓我們擔憂中國製造業的未來。

zhongguozhizaoyezenmele？jinrongweijiyilaizhongguochengweiquanqiuzhizaoyediyidaguo，jiyushizhongguozhizaoyejinrulexindefazhanjieduan，yetuxianlezhongguochengjiequanqiuchanyefengongdezhongyaodiwei
，shijieshangduoshushangpindeshengchankenengyuzhongguodoucunzaizhehuoduohuoshaodelianxi
，zhongguozhizaoyedefazhanbujinyingxiangzhongguojingji
，yegouchengquanqiujingjifazhandezhongyaoneirong。

上(shang)述(shu)事(shi)實(shi)
，雖(sui)然(ran)不(bu)能(neng)揭(jie)示(shi)未(wei)來(lai)中(zhong)國(guo)製(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)仍(reng)將(jiang)持(chi)續(xu)擴(kuo)張(zhang)的(de)態(tai)勢(shi)，但(dan)也(ye)沒(mei)有(you)預(yu)示(shi)製(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)大(da)勢(shi)已(yi)去(qu)的(de)現(xian)象(xiang)，中(zhong)國(guo)當(dang)前(qian)仍(reng)然(ran)是(shi)全(quan)球(qiu)製(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)第(di)一(yi)大(da)國(guo)
，這(zhe)表(biao)明(ming)中(zhong)國(guo)製(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)仍(reng)然(ran)具(ju)有(you)優(you)勢(shi)，否(fou)則(ze)顯(xian)然(ran)難(nan)以(yi)保(bao)持(chi)首(shou)位(wei)，即(ji)便(bian)保(bao)持(chi)前(qian)三(san)位(wei)都(dou)是(shi)相(xiang)當(dang)困(kun)難(nan)的(de)。

那na為wei什shen麼me大da家jia對dui製zhi造zao業ye開kai始shi擔dan心xin呢ne？曹cao德de旺wang所suo說shuo的de勞lao動dong力li以yi外wai的de不bu少shao要yao素su成cheng本ben，確que實shi呈cheng現xian比bi美mei國guo等deng國guo家jia更geng高gao的de現xian象xiang，即ji便bian考kao慮lv到dao勞lao動dong力li，盡jin管guan沒mei有you美mei國guo那na麼me高gao
，但dan近jin幾ji年nian來lai中zhong國guo勞lao動dong力li工gong資zi確que實shi出chu現xian了le較jiao快kuai的de上shang漲zhang，所suo有you這zhe些xie都dou預yu示shi中zhong國guo製zhi造zao業ye成cheng本ben較jiao快kuai上shang升sheng的de事shi實shi，結jie果guo直zhi接jie縮suo窄zhai製zhi造zao業ye的de利li潤run。

如ru果guo單dan純chun從cong要yao素su等deng顯xian性xing成cheng本ben來lai看kan
，製zhi造zao業ye盈ying利li能neng力li不bu斷duan下xia降jiang的de問wen題ti越yue來lai越yue突tu出chu，未wei來lai確que實shi麵mian臨lin著zhe製zhi造zao業ye轉zhuan移yi甚shen至zhi是shi大da規gui模mo轉zhuan移yi的de壓ya力li。然ran而er
，從cong衡heng量liang製zhi造zao業ye競jing爭zheng力li的de重zhong要yao指zhi標biao來lai看kan，經jing常chang賬zhang戶hu仍reng然ran是shi比bi較jiao重zhong要yao的de指zhi標biao，中zhong國guo商shang品pin貨huo物wu貿mao易yi長chang時shi期qi是shi順shun差cha
，截jie至zhi目mu前qian仍reng然ran沒mei有you改gai變bian順shun差cha的de現xian象xiang
，表biao明ming中zhong國guo製zhi造zao業ye仍reng然ran具ju有you較jiao強qiang的de競jing爭zheng力li，中zhong國guo製zhi造zao業ye商shang品pin仍reng然ran繼ji續xu開kai拓tuo全quan球qiu市shi場chang
，而er不bu是shi大da規gui模mo的de製zhi造zao業ye轉zhuan移yi。這zhe也ye是shi特te朗lang普pu準zhun備bei將jiang中zhong國guo納na入ru彙hui率lv操cao縱zong國guo的de重zhong要yao原yuan因yin。

為(wei)何(he)在(zai)製(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)成(cheng)本(ben)飆(biao)升(sheng)的(de)情(qing)況(kuang)下(xia)，中(zhong)國(guo)製(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)還(hai)能(neng)持(chi)續(xu)在(zai)本(ben)土(tu)生(sheng)產(chan)而(er)沒(mei)有(you)大(da)規(gui)模(mo)轉(zhuan)移(yi)呢(ne)？也(ye)許(xu)這(zhe)是(shi)非(fei)常(chang)複(fu)雜(za)的(de)問(wen)題(ti)，但(dan)企(qi)業(ye)是(shi)逐(zhu)利(li)的(de)，必(bi)然(ran)需(xu)要(yao)從(cong)利(li)潤(run)角(jiao)度(du)進(jin)行(xing)剖(pou)析(xi)。結(jie)合(he)現(xian)實(shi)來(lai)看(kan)，雖(sui)然(ran)各(ge)種(zhong)要(yao)素(su)成(cheng)本(ben)很(hen)高(gao)，但(dan)中(zhong)國(guo)製(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)有(you)著(zhe)較(jiao)為(wei)完(wan)善(shan)的(de)產(chan)業(ye)鏈(lian)，具(ju)有(you)上(shang)下(xia)遊(you)的(de)緊(jin)密(mi)耦(ou)合(he)所(suo)帶(dai)來(lai)的(de)成(cheng)本(ben)節(jie)約(yue)，在(zai)實(shi)際(ji)操(cao)作(zuo)過(guo)程(cheng)中(zhong)還(hai)可(ke)能(neng)存(cun)在(zai)著(zhe)各(ge)種(zhong)隱(yin)性(xing)補(bu)貼(tie)
，比(bi)如(ru)，有(you)些(xie)地(di)方(fang)為(wei)了(le)招(zhao)商(shang)引(yin)資(zi)變(bian)相(xiang)給(gei)予(yu)土(tu)地(di)優(you)惠(hui)或(huo)者(zhe)稅(shui)收(shou)優(you)惠(hui)
，有(you)些(xie)地(di)方(fang)則(ze)不(bu)顧(gu)環(huan)境(jing)汙(wu)染(ran)等(deng)問(wen)題(ti)而(er)降(jiang)低(di)環(huan)保(bao)成(cheng)本(ben)。這(zhe)種(zhong)變(bian)相(xiang)優(you)惠(hui)或(huo)許(xu)構(gou)成(cheng)了(le)製(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)等(deng)相(xiang)關(guan)企(qi)業(ye)的(de)重(zhong)要(yao)利(li)潤(run)來(lai)源(yuan)。

最為典型的就是霧霾
，大規模製造業的生產可能最終會形成環保的負向外溢效應。尤其是從事低附加值的低端製造業
，其生產、jiagongdenghuanjieduihuanjingdeyingxiangjiangshibukedigude。zaimeiyouchuxianwumaidenghuanbaowentizhiqian，qiyexiangshouzhehuanbaodibiaozhundengdailaidelirunkongjian，danzhezhongkongjianqiaqiashifadaguojiasuobunengrongrende。suoyibansuizhewumaidengwentidebaofa，zhizaoyebujinmianlinzhehuanbaodejiamajididuanzhizaoyedexianzhizhunru，erqiezhizaoyehaijiangmianlinzhekeyizhongshui，youcizhichengwumaidengwentidejiejue，jieguojiangzhubutuishengzhizaoyedechengben。

綜合來看

，雖然中國要素成本等方麵的製造業成本已經逐步接近美國，但中國仍然坐擁第一製造業大國地位，核心因素在於環保低標準、土地優惠及稅收優惠等可能帶來的利潤的彈性空間。當然
，未來隨著霧霾等問題的激化，製造業利潤將由於環保準入門檻提高
、稅收提升等舉措而壓縮，如果製造業不能實現轉型升級，中國製造業對外轉移的問題或許難以回避。範區”。