2016nianzhongguojingjizhuanxinghegaigedezhongdianzhiyi，zaiyuhuajiemuqianzaizhongguojingjigexingyepubiancunzaidechannengguoshengwenti。genjuzhongguoguojiatongjijubuwanquandeguanfangtongji

，gangtie
、水泥、電解鋁、平板玻璃、造船等行業的產能利用率，分別隻有72%、73.7%

、71.9%、73.1%和75%。也就是說，這些行業的產能過剩率至少有30%，中(zhong)國(guo)產(chan)能(neng)過(guo)剩(sheng)問(wen)題(ti)的(de)嚴(yan)重(zhong)性(xing)遠(yuan)高(gao)於(yu)其(qi)他(ta)各(ge)主(zhu)要(yao)經(jing)濟(ji)體(ti)。如(ru)果(guo)考(kao)慮(lv)到(dao)在(zai)產(chan)能(neng)如(ru)此(ci)之(zhi)高(gao)的(de)情(qing)勢(shi)下(xia)，仍(reng)然(ran)有(you)許(xu)多(duo)的(de)投(tou)資(zi)和(he)在(zai)建(jian)項(xiang)目(mu)正(zheng)在(zai)進(jin)行(xing)中(zhong)
，那(na)麼(me)等(deng)到(dao)未(wei)來(lai)幾(ji)年(nian)這(zhe)些(xie)項(xiang)目(mu)完(wan)成(cheng)的(de)時(shi)候(hou)，中(zhong)國(guo)的(de)產(chan)能(neng)過(guo)剩(sheng)問(wen)題(ti)將(jiang)變(bian)得(de)更(geng)加(jia)嚴(yan)重(zhong)。

以鋼鐵行業為例，中國2012年全國鋼鐵需求大約是3.2億噸，而目前中國的鋼鐵產能大約是4.7億噸，而且目前還有幾個大規模的鋼鐵廠正在建設之中。與此類似
，中國全國的電解鋁需求每年大約是720萬噸，而目前的產能是1100萬噸——也就是產能過剩超過50%，而這隻是中國經濟產能過剩問題的冰山一角。中國的產能過剩之嚴重，發展速度之迅速，吸引了全國和全球的高度關注。

除了上述的傳統行業之外
，在很多曾經一度非常有希望的新興產業

，也開始出現大量的產能過剩問題。汽車行業、光伏行業和風電行業，這些一度被國家發改委當作能夠推動中國經濟發展的下一個戰略性發展行業
，目前都麵臨著產能過剩率超過50%的尷尬局麵。

yaoxianghuajiezhongguojingjimuqianmianlindeyanzhongchannengguoshengwenti
，kenengxuyaoshouxianlijiexingchengchannengguoshengdeyuanyin，bingezhizhuchannengguoshengjinyibuehuadequshi。shihoukanlainanyilijiedechannengguoshengwenti，qishizaiwentibaofazhiqian
，fanyinglezhongguojingjigecengcizhong，cunzaiyoufeichanglixing、完全可以理解的考慮。

首shou先xian

，中zhong國guo的de中zhong央yang政zheng府fu和he地di方fang政zheng府fu規gui劃hua對dui於yu中zhong國guo嚴yan重zhong的de產chan能neng過guo剩sheng負fu有you直zhi接jie責ze任ren。伴ban隨sui著zhe每mei一yi個ge五wu年nian計ji劃hua的de頒ban布bu，都dou會hui有you一yi批pi重zhong要yao支zhi柱zhu性xing產chan業ye的de規gui劃hua出chu台tai。2009年4wanyicijizhengcequedingzhihou，shidachanyezhenxingjihuatuichu，biaomingzhongyangzhengfumingqueguliheyindaodifangzhengfuzaimoujigetedingdelingyu，jinxingdaliangtouzi。zhengfudegulizhengceheyuzhixiangpeitaodekuansongzijinlaiyuan，shidemouxiexinxinglingyuhuozhezengjingbeihushidelingyu，zaifeichangduandeshijianli，jizhongyongruledaliangdetouzihexiangmu。weiletuidongdifangjingjikuaisuzengchang，difangzhengfushibuhuicuoguozhongyangzhengfutichudegezhongzhongyaozhanlvexingxingyedefazhanjihui。guojiafagaiweisuotichudeyixiliechanyeguihuazhengce，yeshidifangzhengfumouxiexindetouzixiangmuliangengjiarongyitongguo，bingqiekeyibijiaorongyidihuodeyinxingdaikuanhecaizhengzijinzhichi。

danchannengguoshengwentixingchengdezhuyaoyuanyinzaiyu，jihusuoyoudedifangzhengfuzaitongyishijianlixiangfadoushiyizhide，eryouquefaxiangyingdexietiaoheyueshu。weilezhuazhuzhezhuanshunjishidefengkuangtouzijihui，gedizhengfuzaihenduandeshijianneijizhongduiyouxiandejigelingyujinxingfengkuangdetouzi。zhezhongzuofa，henkuaijiuhuidaozhizhejigechanyedechannengguoshengwentichaoguobaifenzhibai。

這zhe種zhong現xian象xiang，就jiu像xiang傳chuan統tong博bo弈yi論lun經jing典dian的de囚qiu徒tu困kun境jing。由you於yu缺que乏fa信xin息xi的de溝gou通tong和he相xiang應ying的de協xie調tiao機ji製zhi

，原yuan來lai非fei常chang有you潛qian力li的de戰zhan略lve新xin興xing產chan業ye
，在zai集ji中zhong投tou資zi的de誘you導dao下xia，很hen快kuai變bian成cheng了le災zai難nan性xing的de產chan能neng過guo剩sheng行xing業ye。2009niansiwanyicijizhengcezhihou
，guoyouyinxingweilenenggouxiangyingzhongyangzhengfuduiyutuidongjingjifazhandehaozhao，suojinxingdedaguimodejijindefangdaihuodong
，yezhijiedaozhilezhexiechanyezaizijinshangdedaoleqingxiexingzhichi，deyigaogemengjindifazhan

，zuizhongyedaozhilezhexiechanyeyanzhongdechannengguosheng。

值得指出的是，中國嚴重產能過剩形成的背後
，除了政府的規劃和引導之外，企業也對事後的嚴重產能過剩問題負有不可推卸的責任。

首先，由於在過去20年裏，所有的企業管理者都預期中國的經濟會不斷地擴張
，因此
，幾乎所有企業都會理性地、buduanjijindikuozhangzijidechanneng。jishizaijingjizengchangxiahuadeshihou，zhongguozhengfuyiciyouyicidixiangquanguohequanshijiezhengmingzijiweichizhongguojingjigaosuzengchangdejuexinhenengli。zaizheyidahuanjingxia
，qiyedouhuijinkenengdichoucuoziben，jinxinggengdaguimodetouzi，yiqizaijinhoudejingjizengchangzhonghuoyi。youyutongguojiedaihetouzijinxingzengchangbitongguotishengqiyedeyanfanengliheguanlishuipingdezengchangfangshigengjiarongyi
，yincihenduozhongguoqiyezhujianxingchengletongguokuozhangchanneng
，jinxingjiliedejiagezhanyihuoqujingzhengyoushidejingzhengzhanlvehesilu。

其次
， youyuguoquguoqushiduonianjianzhongguohuobigongyingliangdegaosuzengchang，qiyejiazhujianxingchenglezichanjiageshibishangzhangdeqianglieyuqi。zaicilixingyuqizhixia，qiyejingyingzhehehuluojidezuofajiushijinkenengduodijierudaliangzhaiwuhekuozhangzijidezichanhechanneng，yiqidaizaixiayilunzichanpaomoguochengzhonghuoli。henduokaishishibeirenweishifeichangjijindetouzijucuo

，suizhezichanpaomodekuaisukuozhang，shihoudoubeirenweishifeichangmingzhide，shenzhishifeichangshenshengde。zhezhongchenggongdiyabaojingjikuozhanghezichanjiageshengzhidejingli，daozhihenduoqiyejiayuelaiyueyouxinxinjinxingjinkenengduo、盡可能快地固定資產投資和產能的擴張。

再zai者zhe，中zhong國guo中zhong央yang和he地di方fang政zheng府fu對dui某mou些xie行xing業ye所suo提ti供gong的de鼓gu勵li政zheng策ce和he擔dan保bao，更geng是shi進jin一yi步bu支zhi持chi了le這zhe種zhong激ji進jin冒mao險xian的de投tou資zi行xing為wei。反fan觀guan過guo去qu幾ji年nian國guo企qi規gui模mo增zeng長chang之zhi所suo以yi如ru此ci之zhi快kuai，背bei後hou的de一yi個ge重zhong要yao的de原yuan因yin是shi國guo有you企qi業ye的de整zheng合he。在zai國guo資zi委wei關guan於yu國guo企qi要yao做zuo大da做zuo強qiang的de號hao召zhao下xia
，國guo有you企qi業ye為wei了le收shou購gou兼jian並bing其qi他ta企qi業ye
，不bu被bei其qi他ta企qi業ye兼jian並bing
，在zai短duan時shi間jian內nei對dui企qi業ye規gui模mo進jin行xing了le大da幅fu擴kuo張zhang。

國有企業自身激進的規模擴張給很多民營企業帶來更大的競爭壓力， 同(tong)時(shi)也(ye)誘(you)使(shi)民(min)營(ying)企(qi)業(ye)同(tong)時(shi)積(ji)極(ji)地(di)擴(kuo)張(zhang)規(gui)模(mo)。除(chu)此(ci)之(zhi)外(wai)
，民(min)營(ying)企(qi)業(ye)也(ye)逐(zhu)漸(jian)意(yi)識(shi)到(dao)
，隨(sui)著(zhe)規(gui)模(mo)擴(kuo)大(da)，企(qi)業(ye)就(jiu)更(geng)有(you)可(ke)能(neng)獲(huo)得(de)政(zheng)府(fu)的(de)各(ge)種(zhong)支(zhi)持(chi)和(he)救(jiu)助(zhu)。高(gao)調(tiao)的(de)公(gong)共(gong)形(xing)象(xiang)和(he)對(dui)當(dang)地(di)財(cai)政(zheng)的(de)貢(gong)獻(xian)以(yi)及(ji)為(wei)當(dang)地(di)勞(lao)動(dong)力(li)提(ti)供(gong)就(jiu)業(ye)機(ji)會(hui)，成(cheng)為(wei)民(min)營(ying)企(qi)業(ye)在(zai)地(di)方(fang)政(zheng)府(fu)麵(mian)前(qian)討(tao)價(jia)還(hai)價(jia)最(zui)有(you)力(li)的(de)資(zi)本(ben)。隨(sui)著(zhe)企(qi)業(ye)規(gui)模(mo)的(de)擴(kuo)大(da)，及(ji)企(qi)業(ye)在(zai)資(zi)本(ben)市(shi)場(chang)和(he)全(quan)國(guo)知(zhi)名(ming)度(du)的(de)提(ti)升(sheng)，某(mou)些(xie)企(qi)業(ye)會(hui)逐(zhu)漸(jian)成(cheng)為(wei)一(yi)個(ge)地(di)區(qu)的(de)名(ming)片(pian)。一(yi)旦(dan)這(zhe)些(xie)企(qi)業(ye)發(fa)生(sheng)任(ren)何(he)問(wen)題(ti)，當(dang)地(di)政(zheng)府(fu)有(you)較(jiao)強(qiang)的(de)動(dong)機(ji)來(lai)推(tui)動(dong)和(he)救(jiu)助(zhu)這(zhe)些(xie)企(qi)業(ye)。2010nianwenzhoujinrongweijiqijiandaqiyededaoguanzhuhejiuzhu，putongzhongxiaoqiyezishengzimiedeqingkuang


，zegengshijinyibuqianghualehenduominyingqiyejiakuodazishenguimodedongji。

zuihouzhidezhichudeshi，zhongguodejinrongjigouduizhongguodechannengguoshengwentifuyoubuketuixiedezeren。zhongguojinrongtixizuizhongyaodezuchengbufenyinxingdefangdaijueding，wangwangkeyijuedingyijiaqiyedefazhannaizhimingyun。youyuyinxingdaikuanliuchengduiyuqiyedeguimohediyapindejiazhidouyoubijiaoyangedeyaoqiu
，erqiepianxiangdaxingqiye
，yinciyigeqiyehuodeyinxingdaikuanhenenggoujiechudaojinrongshichangdenengli，hendachengdushangqujueyuqiyedeguimo。weilenenggouhuodeyinxingdaikuanzheyizhongguozuilianjia、體量最大的融資方式的支持，也從客觀上解釋了為什麼中國的民營企業強大的擴大企業規模和產能的動機。

在了解了中國產能過剩問題形成背後政府和企業在個體層麵的理性思考之後
， 防止和化解中國目前產能過剩問題的解決思路也就變得相應清晰了。

首先
，政府應該在經濟發展中讓市場發揮更大的配置資源的作用，減少行政規劃和幹預， 讓企業和企業家在盡可能少的外部擾動的環境下，進行自發的、可持續的規劃和發展。

qici，qiyejiayinggaijingjifazhanhehuobigongyingxingchengzhunquehezhongxingdeyuqi。guoquyiduanshijianzhongguojingjigaosunaizhichaogaosudezengchang
，wuyidaozhilehenduoqiyejiaduiyuweilaixingchengduoduoshaoshaobuqieshijideyuqiheguihua。eryidanshichangxuqiudezengchangdabudaoqiyeshixianguofenleguandeyuqi
，channengguoshengjiuchengweiyigebukebimiandejieguo。eryaogaibianshichangdeyuqi,逐步退出政府提供的各種各樣的剛性兌付和救助

，讓市場參與者對自己的決策和承擔的風險承擔所應承擔的責任就變得至關重要。

隨sui著zhe下xia一yi步bu中zhong國guo金jin融rong改gai革ge的de推tui動dong，隨sui著zhe利li率lv市shi場chang化hua和he民min營ying銀yin行xing等deng改gai革ge的de進jin行xing，中zhong國guo企qi業ye特te別bie是shi國guo有you企qi業ye
，應ying當dang逐zhu步bu適shi應ying憑ping借jie自zi己ji的de創chuang新xin和he管guan理li能neng力li
，而er不bu是shi自zi己ji的de規gui模mo和he背bei後hou的de政zheng府fu擔dan保bao


，去qu接jie觸chu金jin融rong市shi場chang並bing獲huo得de市shi場chang的de融rong資zi。隨sui著zhe企qi業ye債zhai券quan市shi場chang和he上shang市shi公gong司si收shou購gou兼jian並bing和he退tui市shi製zhi度du的de不bu斷duan成cheng熟shu，中zhong國guo的de企qi業ye也ye會hui越yue來lai越yue多duo地di意yi識shi到dao，企qi業ye規gui模mo的de擴kuo張zhang並bing不bu總zong是shi帶dai來lai好hao的de結jie果guo，有you的de時shi候hou會hui帶dai來lai更geng高gao的de成cheng本ben甚shen至zhi是shi巨ju大da的de風feng險xian。隻zhi有you企qi業ye真zhen正zheng意yi識shi到dao和he承cheng擔dan起qi產chan能neng擴kuo張zhang的de全quan部bu責ze任ren和he成cheng本ben
，中zhong國guo產chan能neng過guo剩sheng繼ji續xu惡e化hua的de取qu舍she才cai能neng真zhen正zheng得de以yi遏e製zhi。

麵對中國目前已經發展得非常嚴重的產能過剩局麵
，諸如破產重組、兼並收購、yewuzhuanxing
，hehaiwaikuozhangdeshichangshouduan

，queshiyinggaikeyiduimuqiandewentijinxingyidingdehuanjiehehuajie。raner
，ruguobunengliqingzhongguochannengguoshengwentibeihoushichangcanyugefangdelixingsikaohecelvefanying
，namezaidadaoduanqiquchanneng
、去杠杆、去庫存目標過程中
，讓市場在資源配置中發揮決定性作用的改革精神和方向
，將難以得到充分的貫徹和有效的實施。

正本，仍需清源！