Global Manufacturing Industry Recovery in 2025 to Follow Sluggish 2024
全球製造業將在2024年低迷之後於2025年複蘇

The global manufacturing economy will remain sluggish in 2024 and is forecast to expand by just 0.6% compared with last year. However, it looks set to recover in 2025, the latest data from Interact Analysis reveals. The market intelligence expert explains, except for China, most territories will experience a slight contraction this year, but many will be better off than expected going into 2025.

2024年全球製造業經濟將保持低迷，預計與去年相比僅增長0.6%。不過Interact Analysis的最新數據顯示，製造業經濟有望在 2025 年複蘇。這位市場情報專家解釋說，除中國外，大多數地區今年將經曆輕微萎縮，但到 2025 年，許多地區的情況將好於預期。

Although Interact Analysis has lowered growth forecasts for 2025 in its latest Manufacturing Industry Output Tracker (MIO), this is the result of a slightly improved global outlook for the end of 2024, which will in turn see most economies finish the year in a stronger position. A slight dip in the growth rate is anticipated in 2026, but manufacturing output is expected to maintain a relatively steady positive trajectory out to 2028.

盡管 Interact Analysis 在其最新的製造業產出追蹤 (MIO) 中下調了 2025 年的增長預測，但由於 2024 年底全球前景略有改善，這將使大多數經濟體以更強勁的地位結束這一年。預計 2026 年的增長率將略有下降，但預計製造業產出將保持相對穩定的正增長軌跡，直到 2028 年。

No clear signs of where recovery will come from
尚無明顯跡象表明經濟複蘇將始於何處

It is still unclear where the global manufacturing recovery will come from and until there is an upturn it is difficult to judge the potential strength. Despite optimistic signs for other territories, the latest MIO includes a slight downward revision for China compared with the previous edition; from 2.8% to 2.4%. China as ‘the factory of the world’ is responsible for almost half of the total manufacturing market value and any further reductions in the country’s forecast could well lead to a small contraction in the global MIO figure for 2024.

目(mu)前(qian)尚(shang)不(bu)清(qing)楚(chu)全(quan)球(qiu)製(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)複(fu)蘇(su)將(jiang)從(cong)何(he)而(er)來(lai)，在(zai)出(chu)現(xian)好(hao)轉(zhuan)之(zhi)前(qian)
，很(hen)難(nan)判(pan)斷(duan)潛(qian)在(zai)的(de)實(shi)力(li)。盡(jin)管(guan)其(qi)他(ta)地(di)區(qu)出(chu)現(xian)了(le)樂(le)觀(guan)跡(ji)象(xiang)，但(dan)最(zui)新(xin)的(de)製(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)產(chan)出(chu)追(zhui)蹤(zong)與(yu)上(shang)一(yi)版(ban)相(xiang)比(bi)
，對(dui)中(zhong)國(guo)的(de)預(yu)測(ce)略(lve)有(you)下(xia)調(tiao)，從(cong) 2.8% 降至 2.4%。中國作為“世界工廠”，占製造業總市值的近一半，如果中國預測進一步下調，很可能會導致 2024 年全球製造業產出追蹤數字小幅收縮。

Consumer resilience coupled with inflation and interest rates slowly starting to fall is pushing up spending worldwide and the US manufacturing economy is strengthening. The semiconductor industry has bounced back from a low point in 2023, boosting outlook for parts of South-Asia heavily reliant on the market sector, including Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea. Dwindling order books and the impact of the higher cost of living have constrained global demand, but there are signs of recovery in consumer spending and post-Covid supply chain problems have eased considerably.

消費者的韌性加上通脹和利率開始緩慢下降，正在推高全球支出，美國製造業經濟正在增強。半導體行業已從 2023 年的低點反彈
，提振了嚴重依賴市場部門的南亞部分地區的前景，包括台灣、新(xin)加(jia)坡(po)和(he)韓(han)國(guo)。訂(ding)單(dan)減(jian)少(shao)和(he)生(sheng)活(huo)成(cheng)本(ben)上(shang)升(sheng)的(de)影(ying)響(xiang)限(xian)製(zhi)了(le)全(quan)球(qiu)需(xu)求(qiu)，但(dan)有(you)跡(ji)象(xiang)表(biao)明(ming)消(xiao)費(fei)者(zhe)支(zhi)出(chu)正(zheng)在(zai)複(fu)蘇(su)，後(hou)疫(yi)情(qing)時(shi)代(dai)的(de)供(gong)應(ying)鏈(lian)問(wen)題(ti)已(yi)大(da)大(da)緩(huan)解(jie)。

However, there are various economic indicators pointing to a more challenging environment for manufacturers. All four major European manufacturing economies are in a downward cycle, and sentiment for the year remains gloomy. Positive signals from the US may well start to manifest in other regions later in the year, but this has yet to be seen.

然(ran)而(er)，各(ge)種(zhong)經(jing)濟(ji)指(zhi)標(biao)表(biao)明(ming)，製(zhi)造(zao)商(shang)麵(mian)臨(lin)的(de)環(huan)境(jing)更(geng)具(ju)挑(tiao)戰(zhan)性(xing)。歐(ou)洲(zhou)四(si)大(da)製(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)經(jing)濟(ji)體(ti)均(jun)處(chu)於(yu)下(xia)行(xing)周(zhou)期(qi)
，今(jin)年(nian)的(de)市(shi)場(chang)情(qing)緒(xu)依(yi)然(ran)低(di)迷(mi)。美(mei)國(guo)發(fa)出(chu)的(de)積(ji)極(ji)信(xin)號(hao)很(hen)可(ke)能(neng)在(zai)今(jin)年(nian)晚(wan)些(xie)時(shi)候(hou)開(kai)始(shi)在(zai)其(qi)他(ta)地(di)區(qu)顯(xian)現(xian)，但(dan)這(zhe)還(hai)有(you)待(dai)觀(guan)察(cha)。

Conditions remain challenging for machinery market
機械市場形勢依然嚴峻

Although the overall outlook for manufacturing is expected to improve into 2025, the machinery market is in a slightly worse position. There are variations by machinery type, but underlying factors include persistently high interest rates pushing up the price of new machinery and low order intake in the last year affecting current production figures.

盡管預計製造業的整體前景將在 2025 年(nian)有(you)所(suo)改(gai)善(shan)，但(dan)機(ji)械(xie)市(shi)場(chang)的(de)狀(zhuang)況(kuang)略(lve)差(cha)。機(ji)械(xie)類(lei)型(xing)各(ge)不(bu)相(xiang)同(tong)
，但(dan)潛(qian)在(zai)因(yin)素(su)包(bao)括(kuo)持(chi)續(xu)的(de)高(gao)利(li)率(lv)推(tui)高(gao)了(le)新(xin)機(ji)械(xie)的(de)價(jia)格(ge)，以(yi)及(ji)去(qu)年(nian)訂(ding)單(dan)量(liang)低(di)影(ying)響(xiang)了(le)當(dang)前(qian)的(de)生(sheng)產(chan)數(shu)據(ju)。

Adrian Lloyd, CEO at Interact Analysis, said, “The global outlook for manufacturing output is mixed to say the least. Our projections are holding but there are no clear signs of where recovery will come from and how strong it will be. As a result, we will be watching closely to see how constrained consumer spending in China, a strengthening US economy and global events will affect conditions.

Interact Analysis 首席執行官 Adrian Lloyd 表示：“quanqiuzhizaoyechanchudeqianjingzhishaokeyishuoshixiyoucanban。womendeyuceshizhengquede，danmeiyoumingquedejixiangbiaomingfusujiangcongheerlai

，yijifusudeqiangduruhe。yinci，womenjiangmiqieguanzhuzhongguoxiaofeizhichushouxian、美國經濟走強以及全球事件將如何影響形勢。

“In the latest edition of our MIO tracker, we have added some details about machinery markets and will cover additional machinery sectors in coming editions. The machinery market appears to be experiencing more challenging conditions than manufacturing overall, as global uncertainty leads to caution around investment in equipment.”

“在zai我wo們men最zui新xin版ban的de製zhi造zao業ye產chan出chu追zhui蹤zong中zhong，我wo們men增zeng加jia了le一yi些xie有you關guan機ji械xie市shi場chang的de細xi節jie，並bing將jiang在zai未wei來lai的de版ban本ben中zhong涵han蓋gai更geng多duo機ji械xie行xing業ye。機ji械xie市shi場chang似si乎hu比bi製zhi造zao業ye整zheng體ti麵mian臨lin更geng具ju挑tiao戰zhan性xing的de條tiao件jian，因yin為wei全quan球qiu不bu確que定ding性xing導dao致zhi人ren們men對dui設she備bei投tou資zi持chi謹jin慎shen態tai度du。”